Red Bull are fourth in the constructors', winless after twelve races, and the only team in the top four without a victory. Three years ago they were the benchmark. What happened isn't one thing.
They bet the car on the wrong idea. They chased straight-line speed, and on paper that suited the 2026 rules, since the new power units put more weight on electrical performance down the straights. In practice, they built a car that's quick in a straight line and falls apart in corners, which is where lap time actually lives.
The corner problem compounds itself. Data from earlier in the season showed Red Bull's biggest deficits to Mercedes in high-speed corners, exactly where teams harvest energy. So they lose twice: slower through the corner, and less energy recovered for the straight that follows.
On top of that, nothing has been consistent. Verstappen's own summary is that there's a different problem every weekend. Balance issues in practice. A rear wing failure that spun him in Q3 at Hungary. Former Ferrari race engineer Rob Smedley rated the season so far a five out of ten.
The people who built Red Bull's dominant era are gone. Adrian Newey left for Aston Martin. Jonathan Wheatley left. Christian Horner was removed as team principal, with Laurent Mekies now in charge. Rob Marshall and Will Courtenay both went to McLaren. And Verstappen's race engineer, Gianpiero Lambiase, will leave at the end of 2027 to join McLaren the following season.
Verstappen spent this season calling these cars "anti-racing" and the racing "Mario Kart." He had an exit clause, but he re-signed with the team through 2030 anyway.